Diamond Mine

It's no secret that Barry Bonds' 2006 season has been a bit of a strtuggle for him out of the gate. Being a lifelong A's fan, I know what slow april starts are ALL about. There was simply nothing that caught my ear more than when I was working on my computer about two nights ago and I hear John Kruk going nuts about how Willie Randolph SHOULD NOT give Barry Bonds the free pass to 1st base. Perhaps John Kruk simply han't watched much baseball in the last ten years that Barry Bonds has been the best hitter in baseball. Even the most casual of fan can see what happens when you DO pitch to Barry Bonds: He kills the ball dead!

Billy Wagner has one of the most gruesome Slider's EVER. He uses it along side his unbelieveable 99 mph + fastball. Simply put, he one of the most dominating pitcher's in baseball based purely on nastiness. In addition to being one of the games most feared closers, Wagner's left handed. Barry bonds hits all pitchers well, but his batting average does take a 14 pts hit against lefties over his career. Bonds' raw power numbers take a bigger dip against lefties. Against left handed pitcher, Bonds Slugging Pct drops by 56 pts. It goes from .639 against right handed pitchers to .583 against left handed pitchers. I usually don't put too much stock into splits, but these are CAREER splits so they are at least moe meaningful, statisticly, than year to year splits.

My point is that Barry Bonds could not have been more disadvantaged than he was against Billy Wagner last night. Yet he STILL did what he's always done. He KILLED the ball dead.

Barry can barely play left field anymore. Barry, due to his chronic knee problem can barely run the bases anymore. Finding pitches to crush is all Barry is left with. John Kruk, THAT'S why Willie Randoph should walk Barry Bonds. Not only that, but he should walk Barry Bonds as often as possible.

Normally, giving an opponent a free base runner without geting an out is return is a bad trade. Again, I was saying that was when it's a normal player we're talking about. Barry Bonds is not a normal player.

I will assert here that Power is the single most important part of Barry Bonds' game in the year 2006.

I will also say that by pitching to Barry Bonds, you are playing to this particular player's main offensive strength.

I took BArry Bonds' numbers and removedhis intentional walks. What I found was pretty typical to those who favor pitching to Bonds over the course of 2006. His Run Created per game drop over a half a run (.632)! Here's what I find interesting though. A metric I like to use to measure a player's abilty as a power hitter or "clean up guy" is his Extra Base Percentage. Bond's Extra base percentage jumps from .122 to .144. That is to say that he moves form hitting adouble or better 12% of the time to 14% of the time. We all know that Bonds isn't known fo his ability to clear the bases with his triples. He hits home runs. If you remove Barry Bonds' Intentional Walks over those three years, he would have started hitting homeruns in 9.2% of his Plate Appearances. Give the man 500 Plate appearancecs and you're talking 55 home runs in that year!

I know that I've thrown alot of numbers out here and I apologize for that. But I feel as though I must point this out as well. Bond's On Base Percentage WITHOUT all the free passes is still and ungodly .487 over the last 3 years. That means that pitchers are only getting a 51.3% chance of getting him out at all. Pitcher's are used to having a 66% of getting a hitter out on average. Bond's is THAT MUCH better with out free passes than the average major leaguer WITH intentional walks.

So my conclusion is, that there is a much greater chance of Barry Bonds reaching base safely than any pitcher is used to facing. We muct also consider that allowing Barry Bonds to see potentional pitches to crush (remember that's what I claim is the single best thing he does) plays to his STRENGTHS not his weaknesses (his abilty to run).

In the way of speculation, I would like to say that I think Bonds' power numbers like XBP (Extra Base Percentage) and HRP (Home Run Percentage) would start going up as you continued to pitch to him. After all, THAT WHY THEY STOPPED PITCHING TO HIM TO BEGIN WITH!

So John Kruk, if you think Barry Bonds is such a bad hitter currently, why don't YOU pitch to him. Lay off Willie Randoplh for trying to get around the greatest power hitter in the history of baseball.