Diamond Mine

So far, the season is off to a good start. I put together a list of 5 players who have had terrible starts to their seasons that have totally caught me off guard.

5. Brad Radke

Brad Radke had one of the best 9-12 seasons by a starter you could hope for. I'm a sucker for Innings eaters with outstanding control. Guys like that should just get wins handed to them from their offense if it's any good at all. Baseball Prospectus projected Radke to have about a .500 year because of his age. Radke has never been the dominate ace that some people thought he'd be, but that's not to say he's bad either. Radke has a 1.79 WHIP through five starts this season. He's averaging 5.26 Innings per start. Radke is giving up 3.487 runs per start. That doesn't sound too bad. You have to consider that he's barely getting past the 5th inning in giving up those 3.5 runs. If you pro-rate that for 9 innings and make it look like an ERA, it comes out to be 5.97. Radke is better than this… right? Twins fans sure better hope so. Some scouting reports say that Radke has been relying on his fastball more and more. If that is true, it's possible that he's become more hittable since he has such great control and his fastball is rated somewhere between average and barely good.

4. Jeff Francoeur

Ahh… It's the classic sophomore slump. We all know the man lack plate discipline. His 11/58 BB/K ratio was one of the worst in baseball last year. It took him 139 PA to draw his first walk last year and it's only been 108 PA this year so maybe I'm in panic mode. I love this guy's defense in right field and there's certainly something to be said for that so far this year. At this point, Francoeur has a .261 baseline average. Last year's MLB baseline average was .341. The poor guy is striking out in almost 20% of his plate appearances this year. I haven't seen Francoeur play that much so far this year. If I were to guess, I would say that pitchers are picking on this guys complete lack of selectivity and just throwing him garbage to swing at. From what I can see, Francouer reminds me of a young Vlad Guerrero, but not as good. Vlad swings at everything too, but is much more successful. The Braves need this guy to pick it up.

3. Ben Sheets

Sheets started the season hurt. Then he came back. Then he was hurt again. When he's pitched, he's been totally erratic. Of everyone on this list, Sheets is the most likely to bounce back and do well the rest of the year. He only has one walk all year and has an obscene 1.39 K per inning rate. The key for Sheets this year is to stay on the mound for long enough stretches to help the Brewers out when he's pitching effectively.

2. Cliff Floyd

He's 33 and he's not hitting for any average or power. There are three possible explanations.

1) Last year was his last good one he had left in him.
2) He's in the middle of a one month slump right now.
3) There is some unknown injury being hidden and hindering Floyd's performance.

Baseball Prospectus gave Floyd a 25% collapse rate which is a pretty high number and it seems as good an explanation as any. I don't buy the idea that Floyd is simply slumping either. Given Floyd's history with injuries, I'm inclined to believe that there is something wrong and that he will be on the DL soon. Once he returns from whatever is wrong, he'll come back as the real Cliff Floyd. You know… the left fielder with a center fielder's glove. Cliff Floyd has that perfect balance of offensive production and defensive excellence. I would like to believe this isn't going to be that collapse year for such a good player, but the guy has done NOTHING offensively for an entire month.

1. Estaban Loaiza

Here's a list of things that start to happen in the workplace when your employer starts having problems with the job you are doing.

1) Minor transgressions begin to be amplified as being reflective of a bigger problem. This is true even if those minor transgressions have been apparent before the bigger problem was brought up.
2) A slightly altered role within the job place which usually results in less responsibility.
3) Your direct Supervisor (Curt Young), your Manager (Ken Macha), the Company President (Billy Beane), and the Assistant General Manager (David Forst) call an emergency meeting to talk about what a bad job you are doing and what they are going to do to get rid of the problem.

Yeah, Loaiza, it's that bad for you right now. It's not like this hasn't happened before. In 2004, the desperate Yankees traded troubled Starter, Jose Contrtares, to the White Sox for Estaban who had won 21 games the year before. Upon arriving in New York Loaiza pitched well enough to earn himself out for the rotation and into a bullpen with guys like Tanyon Sturtze and Felix Heredia. In his ten appearances with New York, he put up an ERA of 8.50. In 2005, Loaiza pitched like Loaiza. He ate up innings with the occasional timely K, and good control. Those are all good qualities to have from a fourth starter. Of course, since coming to the A's, he's put in his application for the seldom used-not very useful bullpen guys spot in the bullpen that he had in New York.

He are my grades on chances for recovery of the above players:

5. Brad Radke: C
4. Jeff Francouer: B-
3. Ben Sheets: A
2. Cliff Floyd: B
1. Estaban Loaiza: D